DIYALA JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING SCIENCES

Abstract

This paper analyzes land use change in Baqubah city the capital of Iraq's Diyala Governorate, in the period from 2004 to 2010, using a cellular automata model. No previous research about this study in Iraq. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform to 2030 year and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index 81.5%, and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. The simulation scenario for the year 2030 showed an increase in the medium residential, high residential and road by (23%, 73%, and 11% respectively). As well as a significant decrease the orchard, vegetation, water, open area and mix by (41%, 36%, 20%, 23%, and 12% respectively)